Variables and relationships

In social research, we seek to learn about variables and relationships among them. Once empirical relationships are established among variables, we can logically construct relationships among the abstract concepts represented by the variables. Going back again to the Sudan Fertility Survey, the research team described the variable fertility in terms of averages for the sample used. These averages were found by analyzing the data for the attribute of fertility, namely the number of children each woman gave birth to. Level of education, another variable, was measured in terms of years of schooling completed. The relationship between fertility and education was based on attributes for fertility, in terms of the number of children born, with the attributes for education, namely, years of schooling completed. Establishing empirical relationships between variables allows us, as social scientists, to speak of relationships among the concepts represented by the variables and to extend our understanding of social relationships and behavior.

Theory as a way of organizing knowledge

So far, we have emphasized that scientific knowledge rests on empirical research. Scientists, including social scientists, however, are not satisfied with only presenting empirical results: They also seek to offer an explanation for why any set of results is consistently found. Scientists refer to a broadly accepted explanation for something as a theory.

Many students have difficulty grasping the idea of theory. To most persons, theory refers to a vague idea about why something has happened. You may have heard someone say: "I have a theory about that," and go on to offer some poorly supported argument in favor of their "theory." For scientists, theory has a special meaning. In scientific terms, a theory is a conceptual framework that explains existing facts and predicts new ones. Each of us accepts a large number of events as facts. For example, the sun rises, follows its daily course across the sky, sets, and daily repeats this pattern. A stone thrown in the air falls back to earth. Both of these common events and many other natural events are events are explained by Newton's theory of gravity. Further, this theory allows scientists to predict new events, like to appearance and paths of comets and other planetary bodies.

Social scientists also seek to develop theories about forms of social behavior. Although far more limited than those in the natural sciences, our theories can explain a large number of related facts and allow us to offer predictions for the direction of social change.

A widely used theory used for explaining the direction of change in many developing countries is the theory of modernism. This theory is based on an extensive set of research findings on changes occurring in developing countries throughout the world. According to the theory of modernism, as employment shifts from agriculture to industrial and other urban jobs, other social changes inevitably occur. These include movement of population from villages and rural areas to urban centers; increased importance of formal education, including equal education for girls; less emphasis on relations with the extended families; a shift to smaller, nuclear families; increases in individual freedom for family members, including wives, who become freer to participate in community and political affairs; and greater emphasis on the individuality of children and cultivation of their intellectual achievements.

A large amount of research supports these generalizations. Further, each of these generalizations appears to be related to the others — urban location is associated with greater educational achievement for females that is related to lower fertility and other social changes. Social scientists use the theory of modernism as a way of summarizing and integrating these generalizations. Like any other theory, the theory of modernism can be used to derive research questions and hypotheses for guiding research. Later in this chapter we show how one investigator used the theory of modernism as well as several other theories to develop hypotheses for her research.

Some new researchers have difficulty dealing with the idea of theory. Part of the reason is that theory is based entirely on the relationships among concepts, which exist only as mental images. Also, developing a theory requires considerable knowledge about a specific topic or area of research. There are, for example, alternative theories of social and economic development, personality, social structure, feminism, and other forms of social interaction.